Most likely Doc scenarios

Peter Gammons recently reported that there's about a 20% chance that Doc will be moved before the deadline. I'm not sure where he got that number from, and don't really care since he's wrong the majority of the time, but let's say he's right and that Doc isn't moved, what happens then?

Well, you end up with a bottleneck of other pitchers that return from injury and need to prove themselves before they have any trade value to go along with a ton of rookies that have proved they can pitch. Here's the "2010 Wonder List" if Doc were to stay.

1- Roy Halladay (presumably sticks around with a re-signing because he loves TO)
2- Ricky Romero
3- Shaun Marcum
4- Scott Richmond
5- Casey Janssen
6- Brian Tallet
7- Dustin McGowan
8- Jesse Litsch
9- Robert Ray
10- David Purcey
11- Bret Cecil
12- Marc Rzepczynski

Quite the bottleneck to say the least!! Now, we all know that the Jays are not trading the last 2 because they are very young, cheap, and extremely talented. We also know that Tallet can slide back into the RP role if needed, and that both Litsch and McGowan may have serious complications during the season. So in reality, it leaves an 8 man rotation that is proven, tried and true. So my question is, who do you deal in today's market? Do you try to deal Purcey, Janssen, or even Tallet? From those only Janssen and Tallet may have real value due to their pen experience, but what would you get in return? 1 or 2 semi-talented prospects?

In my opinion, the reality is that the Jays have plenty of talent to survive without Doc being in their rotation, but they would definitely miss his veteran presence and his willingness to lead the staff. If he goes, who's next in line to lead? Romero? Richmond? Not quite the veteran presence we had in mind since neither one has 2 full years of MLB experience. But, we all know JP idolizes Billy Beane and may be looking at Oakland's most recent makeover and wondering if he can replicate that in Toronto with a whole bunch of young guns that should all become #1 or #2 quality guys in the short term.

With Torii Hunter and Vlad Guerrero going on the DL and a championship in question with the rise of Texas, I'm looking more and more at the Angels getting Doc and sending some quality stuff to Toronto.

My prediciton is one of the 2 LA teams will make a play for Roy. They have the $$$, they have the talent, and both want to win it all this season.

LAA scenario:

3B Brandon Wood
OF Peter Bourjos
SP Jordan Walden
SP Manuarys Correa
1-2 more prospect

for Roy Hallday. New LAA Rotation:

Roy Halladay
John Lackey
Jered Weaver
Joe Saunders
Ervin Santana
*Matt Palmer and co as injury replacement/long relief

This move allows the Jays to go ahead and move Rolen to ST-Louis without asking for Wallace in return, possibly going after SS Pete Kozma and 1 other prospect instead. A Hill-Lind-Snider-Wood combo in the lineup for Toronto (long term) would become the heart of a great lineup and the other prospects are all impact guys, particularly Walden who could develop to be another #2 guy for the Jays very quickly. Bourjos is a prototypical leadoff guy and Correa has a great arm as well for a 19 year old. The only thing I'm not entirely sure of is whether the Jays and Angels will attempt to add a Vernon Wells for Gary Matthews aspect to the deal. This would save the Jays a ton of money, but would still be a lot of money wasted on Matthews who doesn't deserve his contract either. We will see, but if Doc is moved, I almost guarantee it will be one of the AL West teams who gets him for 4 reasons: 1) they are in a very tight and competitive division this year 2) Roy knows all AL hitters very well and would most likely waive his no trade more easily if it were for LAA or TEX 3) Both have the minors resources available to deal and 4) both are very hungry to win this year. Since I've heard that Texas has payroll issues due to ownership money being tight, I am almost ready to wager a lot of money that the LA Angels will in fact get their hands on possibly the best pitcher in all of MLB this season......if he is dealt. Big if.

Vernon Wells to the Mets?

Why can't JP concentrate on dealing Wells instead of Halladay. He'd save a lot more money, open up a spot for Snider since Rios can play center, and would be able to add at least 1 FA or 2 in the off season. The Mets wouldn't give up much due to salary implications, but have to make a move if they want to keep up with the Phillies and Marlins. Candidates in return: anyone of minimal value (pitchers and hitters). 2 B prospects would be good enough here and makes sense on both sides with all the injuries the Mets have had.

1 Run losses are killing the Jays

Small margin losses are the difference between the current losing streak(s)the Jays are experiencing and the awesome beginning to the season they had. In May and some of June, the Jays were winning these close battles and coming out on top. I'm not sure what changed, the pitching has been a little harder to get on track, but it's frustrating to see so many 1 point losses. It seems the answer may be how hard it has been for the Jays to get great performances from the starters followed by shut down performances from the pen. Either the pen has issues, or the starters don't get it done. Either way the Roy Halladay sweepstakes are well under way and I've come up with some scenarios I'd like to see happen, but they're probably pipe dreams. I do expect him to go to one of these teams:

LAA, LAD, STL, PHI, CHW, Tex (in order of likeliness)

The first 2 are obvious because they have all 4 ingredients needed. They have the money, the players to deal, the willingness to win it all at all costs, and the probability of signing Roy long term once he gets there. Both would become/remain so dominant in their divisions. ST-Louis is a wild card to me because I just don't see who they'd give the Jays. Sure they could hand out Daryl Jones, Jamie Garcia (injured), Richard Castillo, and a ton of others.....but I don't see how they have enough without including Rasmus, and I doubt they would. I expect the Cards to want Tallet instead, with Rolen a possibility to return there. Philadelphia's offer would begin with Drabek or Carrasco and their GM has said he won't deal either one of those or Dominic Brown, so scratch them out. I doubt they're hungry enough to win now that they already have 1 championship from last season. The CHW would need to start with Gordon Beckham and I can't see that happening. Maybe the Jays would take a deal similar to what they offered for Peavy, but it would take a bit more than that. Would I be happy with that if I were JP? Hell no. Neither Poreda or Richard is ever going to be a #2, nevermind a #1. If Texas finds a way to deal with its money/ownership woes, they are THE perfect fit. Neftali Feliz, Neil Ramirez, Nelson Cruz, Chris Davis, and Manuel Pina for Wells, Overbay and Halladay. Vernon goes home and is reunited with his best friend, Michael Young. The Jays get much younger and 2 potential top 2 pitchers, as well as 3 players. Like I said, a pipe dream, but it would be fun to see Cecil, Rzep, Feliz, McGowan, Ramirez in the rotation for 2010 and beyond.

Brian Bullington dealing from the pen in AAA

Brian Bullington may prove useful at some point for the Jays and has settled in very nicely in the Las Vegas pen. His last 10 appearance have him dealing 12 innings, striking out 14 and only allowing 2 ER while walking only 3. They have also moved him into the closing role on the squad, with Brian's last 2 appearances being saves, he has 3 overall on the season. With the Jays beginning to look like laggers in the standings, they could decide to make a move or two from their pen and call up guys like Bullington and AA's Daniel Farquhar. Either way, it looks like Bullington's acquisition may have to go into the "good move" column for JP's repertoire.

Marc Rzepczynski ahead of David Purcey?

I know that the Jays want to give their young guys a chance this season, but the use of Marc Rzepczynski - who has only made 2 starts higher than AA - ahead of the experienced David Purcey, who has pitched very well of late in AAA, brings a couple of questions to mind.

1- Is it possible that the Jays want to evaluate whether or not they can expect good production from Marc in the near term, allowing them to begin negotiations to deal Roy?

2- It is also possible that they want to showcase Marc in order to deal him along with Wells in order to get rid of his ludicrous contract.

3- They may simply want someone for 1 start and want to fall back far enough in the standings so that they don't get hate mail when they deal Roy away.

Purcey's stats in AAA lately amount to (last 6 games) 29.2 IP, 24 HA, 8 ER, 16 BB and 28 Ks. To me, he seemed like the most logical choice if the Jays actually wanted to be competitive this season since he did make 12 starts for the Jays last year. Instead, they opted for the rookie - who I am very anxious to see pitch - and who along with Bret Cecil represents the future of the Jays rotation.

Kenny Rodriguez makes first AA start

RHP Kenny Rodriguez, a 24 yr old from Cuba, made the jump from HiA to AA this week and got the July 4th start for New Hampshire. While in HiA, Kenny was 6-3, with a 2.43 ERa in 66.2 IP, 56 Ha, 23 BB, and 63 Ks. In his first start in AA, he went a strong 6 IP, with 3 HA, 3 BB, 1 ER, and 2 Ks. A very encouraging beginning to his progression through the higher levels of the minors. With Marc Rzepczynski getting the start for Toronto on Tuesday, chances are Kenny is in AA to stay and Marc may go to AAA if or when he is sent down again.

Shaun Marcum starts in Dunedin!

The road to recovery took a big leap forward for RHP Shaun Marcum, who threw 3 innings in HiA Dunedin and lasted 3 innings, allowing 2 hits, no runs, no walks, while striking out 1. This is huge news for the Jays who may be looking to deal Roy Halladay if they get their asking price for him. With so many able SPs on the DL returning for 2010 - including Marcum - there's a strong chance that Jays management will force Roy to decide whether he'll sign an extension or whether he wants to be dealt. Marcum's start was very encouraging, but we'll have to see if he makes another start on schedule before getting too excited about it. Soreness usually shows up the next day, so time will tell if we can expect Marcum to return in early September or so.

I can already hear the Texas Rangers picking up the phone...."We'll begin our offer with Chris Davis, Neftali Feliz, and Neil Ramirez, and add......, so long as we get Lyle Overbay along with Roy." They Jays could leave Davis in AAA to work out his strikeout fetish and give poor Brian Dopirak a chance to prove himself in the bigs. Davis could even be used at 3B where the Jays have very little depth should Rolen get injured or also be dealt. Not only would this save the Jays a ton of money and make them much younger while they sell high on the best pitcher in franchise history (along with Tom Henke), but it would provide the Jays with a ton of talent for the long term. If the Jays dealt Roy and Lyle in a deal with Texas, they'd save 15.75m from Roy's 2010 contract and whatever an extension would cost, and 7m from Lyle's contract. These cuts are necessary when you consider that Wells has a contract jumping from 1.5m in 2009, to 12.5m in 2010, and 23m in 2011. Some of the money saved could also be used to sign big international prospect talents and other free agents once the season ends. Texas has Smoak in AAA waiting to grab 1st base, and has 5-7 very strong SP in the minors. If they feel they can make a playoff run this season, Roy's addition could cement their stake. They also have the money to sign him to an extension and can use Lyle's D at 1st base while using the oft injured Blalock as primarily a 3B/1B backup and DH.

GCL Blue Jays Update

The GCL BLue Jays are about to play their 10th game of the year, and currently sit 2nd in their division at 6-3, behind the Yankees and ahead of the following teams: Atlanta, Phillies, Tigers, and the Pirates. Their forte so far has been the pitching, led by Carlos Pina (a 19 yr old from Venezuela, 5'11", 169 lbs) and Matt Fields (a 22 yr old from the US, 6'3" 190 lbs) who have had impressive stats. Pina has already started 2 games, has thrown 12 innings with 10 HA, 0 ER, 4 BB, and 7 Ks. Fields on the other hand has been involved in 4 games but only started one and went 3 innings - he is clearly getting stretched out. He has thrown 8.2 innings, also with 7 Ks, 6 HA and 3 BB. Both of these guys have 0.00 ERAs and Fields in particular could get a shot at LoA by the time the season is well underway.

Offensively there is not much flash to speak of. SS Gustavio Pierre has a HR and a 3B to go along with his .261 AVG and the team lead in SLG with .478. The only other player on the team with a HR is 3B Matthew Nuzzo who is hitting .273 on the year so far. One interesting note so far has been 2008's 16th round pick OF Michael Crouse, who is an 18 yr old from Port Moody California. Although he is only hitting .250, he has already stolen 5 bases in 6 games, has a triple to go with these, and has walked 3 times while striking out 4 times. It seems he is fairly disciplined at the plate and at 6'4" 215 lbs at only 18 yrs of age, he has a lot of room for power growth. He may be a guy to keep an eye on for 2010 and beyond.

1B Brian Dopirak - When will he get his due promotion?

New Hampshire's 1B Brian Dopirak is tearing up AA with a .320 average and 19 HRs over his 303 ABs. With the Jays lacking power, you would think they'd be all over him and would at least test him in AAA. But no, there he sits in AA, wasting his time and power. If the Jays are going to make a run at the playoffs this year, they need all the help they can get from their minors system. Dopirak would make an excellent DH and could get his chance if Rios is traded this season - where Lind would go to the OF along with Dellucci, and Dopirak could give Overbay some days off as well. If the Jays don't give him a shot in AAA before this happens, he could be overwhelmed by the change in speed of the game and not produce as well. I say promote him now and see how well he does in AAA.

Moises Sierra back into form

Dunedin's OF Moises Sierra returned from injury recently and is back to hitting the way we know he can. His line over the last 10 games is 37 ABs, 16 hits, for .432 AVG, with a HR, a 2B and a SB. He's now hitting .325 on the season and although his power has been minimal to what is expected, he should get a shot at AA soon enough.

Trading Wells or Rios

As has been covered in the media, the chances of the Jays trading Wells and eating salary is slim to nil, so really the only trading chip the Jays have at the moment is Alex Rios. So, how much would a team be willing to pay for a guy who has 9 HRs and 13 SBs with a .260 avg over 323 ABs? It depends on whether it's a 1 for 1 deal, 1 for 2-3 deal, or whether the Jays include any other players. The best match for the Jays - the Giants.

The Jays could get a deal involving Alex Rios and ML pitcher Tim Alderson done since the Giants are looking for more offense and have plenty of SP depth in the minors to deal. Others that could be included in the deal include a RP from TOR and an OFer from SF, just to balance the deal and give the Giants a better shot at getting the wild card. I would add that a deal involving Rowand and Wells would not be out of the question, but doubt either one is headed anywhere. However, JP is on the prowl now because he wants to make sure he can sign Roy to an extension and needs the $$$ to do so. If he doesn't think he can get him signed to an extension this season and Roy indicates he only want to sign with a "winning" team, it will be sadly the time to deal him to a playoff team in return for a huge take. I'd hate to see it happen, but it would make the Jays so much better for the long term.

Lansing's Chase Lirette arrives

Selected in the 16th round of the 2006 draft, 24 year old RHP Chase Lirette played in the GCL for the Jays last season - after taking a year off due to injury - but did nothing to impress. This season is entirely different, as Chase has come on strong even if he is slightly older for LoA pitching and is showing why he may be able to make some headway. He has yet to allow more than 2 earned runs in 6 starts and has struck out 24 in 33 innings pitched while only walking 8. He is 3-0 with a 1.87 ERA and could get a promotion in the near future since he has proven dominant so quickly. He's one guy to keep an eye on in Lansing and should draw some attention from BAs 2010 rankings.