Newest Team in on Halladay

MLBTR just posted a new team to include in the Halladay Sweepstakes, and the special part of this rumor is that the JAYS CALLED THE CUBS!!!

If the dollar amounts were to match up, this could be the perfect fit for many reasons, here they are:

1 - Halladay goes to the NL, far away from the Jays rivals;
2 - BA recently ranked the Cubs top 10 prospects, and the list includes 5 Short Stops, meaning that the Cubs can afford to let Starlin Castro go without feeling it too badly;
3 - The Jays have been hot on the trail of Milton Bradley, for whatever reason, and could include him as the MLB ready impact guy;
4 - The Jays could also be asking for Josh Vitters to finish off the deal, another weak position for the Jays internally that is also a strong point in the Cubs system with Aramis Ramirez occupying that space for the next many years;
5 - Bradley is owed 9 million in 2010 while Doc is owed 14.25, so the Cubs are only taking on 5.25 million to get Doc. Well worth the grab;
6 - The Cubs get rid of the 12 million owed to Bradley in 2011, while the Jays could benefit from being able to trade him if he has a good 2010, or get compensation picks for him if he plays through 2011 and leaves as a FA. Either way, the Jays should get some return on investment.
7 - A future lineup of Arencibia - Dopirak - Hill - Castro - Vitters - Snider - Lind - Wells seems very strong and generally cheap for the Jays.
8 - Getting Halladay allows the Cubs to watch Harden take his health issue elsewhere without worry, and provides them with a true ace. Halladay, Zambrano, Lilly, Dempster, Gorzelanny, Wells, Samardzija...would go a long way to putting the Cubs in the playoffs.

The sticking point could be adding a SP prospect going to the Jays. The Jays will most likely ask for one and this could be a haggling point. Jay Jackson is one name that could pop up. So I would firmly add the Cubs to a growing list of candidates for Doc. LAD, CHC, PHI in the NL, and BOS, LAA, and BOS in the AL. According to Alex, the Cubs may be the best candidates....

The Roy Halladay Saga

MLBTR mentioned the latest Roy Halladay news yesterday and placed the Dodgers at the forefront of the teams in the running for his outstanding services. However, the rumors keep emphasizing Chad Billingsley being part of the return to Toronto. Under JP, I would agree, under Alex I would say that he has a better grip on why this cannot be. Let me explain.

If the Dodgers are going to be major contenders without the need to rely on Vicente Padilla in a crucial playoff game, they need MORE pitching, not better pitching. They would like their rotation to read: Roy Halladay, Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda and one FA SP signed this off-season or James McDonald. The key is, they want to do this while keeping their main roster intact. No Ethier or Kemp involved, even Russel Martin may be off limits in their view in order to contend 100% in 2010....So, how, you ask can this get done? Well, here's a couple of scenarios.

First Scenario: The Jays are also looking to move Lyle Overbay, who is an excellent defender and can also hit very well at times, so it isn't a stretch to include James Loney as a return for the Jays. A package that includes James Loney, James McDonald, Ivan DeJesus, and Scott Elbert, in return for Doc and Overbay could work in this case. It fills the need for the Jays to have an MLB ready SP in return (McDonald), a SS of the future (Dejesus), a power hitting 1B (Loney) and some pen help (Elbert). In return, the Dodgers get better defensively and also get an ace/mentor in Halladay. The major hurdle here would be the Dodgers getting an extension done with Doc. (3-4 years total).

Second Scenario: If the Dodgers are too shy to deal James Loney and want nothing to do with Lyle Overbay, they could deal a package full of top-end prospects. The key to this deal would become a combination of RHP Ethan Martin and 1B/OF Andrew Lambo. These two players who be added to SS Ivan Dejesus, RP Scott Elbert, and INF Blake Dewitt. Not only does this not harm the current Dodgers lineup and provide them with an ace in Doc, it also allows them to keep James McDonald who could also provide them with some SP depth as a possible #5 or injury replacement. The extension is still a hurdle in this case.

Unlike JP who was delusional about the team he was leading and their chances of winning, Alex recognizes that he has to build strength in numbers. That is, lots of prospects and lots of young and cheap players, sprinkled with some of the older talent already on the team that is still affordable (Lind/Hill).

I still firmly believe the Jays want to move Roy to the NL in order to avoid making their rivals better, and using their rivals as leverage makes perfect sense. However, they now need to play the Phillies and Dodgers off one-another. They faced each other in the 2009 NLCS and both intend on repeating in 2010, so they are primed to do whatever it takes to get better. The Phillies still have the best options, but are not as desperate to win as the Dodgers are because they already have a World Series win under their belts. It makes sense to look for the Dodgers to land Doc, and the packages above make the Jays much better overall. Guess it's a wait and see now!

Top 50 Jays Prospects - by position

The following is the my take on the best 50 Jays prospects by position, not in order of talent.

1- Yan Gomes C
2- Carlos Perez C
3- Sean Ochinko C
4- JP Arencibia C
5- David Cooper 1B
6 - Santiago Nesi 1B
7- Michael McDade 1B
8 - Brian Dopirak 1B
9- John Tolisano 2B
10- Ryan Schimpf 2B
11- Justin Jackson SS
12- Tyler Pastornicky SS
13- Ryan Goins SS
14- Gustavo Pierre 3B
15- Balbino Fuenmayor 3B
16- Kevin Ahrens 3B
17- Brad Emaus 3B
18- Moises Sierra OF
19- Johermyn Chavez OF
20- Darin Mastroianni OF
21- Eric Thames F
22- Kenneth Wilson OF
23- Jacob Marisnick OF
24- Brian Slover RP
25- Luis Perez SP
26- Trystan Magnuson RP
27- Andrew Liebel SP
28- Joel Carreno SP
29- Dave Sever SP
30- Charles Huggins SP
31- Kenny Rodriguez SP
32- Henderson Alvarez SP
33- Chad Jenkins SP
34- Egan Smith SP
35- Matt Fields SP
36- Carlos Pina SP
37- Cesar Sanchez SP
38- Matthew Wright SP
39- Brad Mills SP
40- Reidier Gonzalez SP
41- Fabio Castro SP
42- Bobby Bell SP
43- Zach Stewart SP/RP
44- Josh Roenicke RP
45- Shawn Griffith RP
46- Aaron Loup RP
47- Daniel Farquhar RP
48- Tim Collins RP
49- Matthew Daly RP
50- Robert Ray SP/RP

Someone please trade for Cliff Lee...

It seems like most teams are hesitant about paying the price for Doc because they still believe that they can grab Lee at a cheaper price. So the only way JP is going to get his price is if Cliff Lee's taken off the market. The strongest rumors have Lee going to the LAD along with VMart, but these were put down immediately by LAD management as having less than zero truth to them, so you can count them out.

The Phillies are hoping that the same package they offered the Jays appeals to the Indians so that they can grab Lee. Unless JP counters with slight changes that allows the Phils to swap Happ for Carraso, and/or Michael Taylor for Dominic Brown, I'm not so sure the Jays will bite. For what it's worth, Jays scouts went to see Brown play yesterday and he went 0 for 3 with 1 walk and 1 strike out. I'm not sure if they were also scouting Taylor, but he went 0 for 2 with 2 walks. The offer that would best fit the needs of the teams involved here is there to be had, it just needs to be tinkered with. But, will a surprise offer be made by a 3rd team?

Well, the order of teams likely to make a move for Roy now based on rumors only are as follows:

PHI - CHW - LAD - NYY - DET - TEX - COL - TB - BOS

Any one of these teams could come out on top, and I'd say that Detroit - who haven't been to the playoffs in quite a while - may be the best "out of nowhere offer" scenario, along with their AL central rival CHW.

However, all of those teams are also scouting Lee, who's price hasn't been made public in the same way that Doc's has. That and Lee hasn't come out and said that he doubts something will get done. I'm really hoping we find out the suitor soon and that the Phils realize that with Doc, they are a lot more likely to repeat this year, and next for that matter. Pedro Martinez is not the answer for them.... and maybe that's what they're really hoping for. To have enough to win without unloading the majority of their prospect talent. Will Phils fans agree?

When it all comes down to it, there is only 1 question to ask: Who would teams rather have on their squads - last year's Cy young winner, or the probable winner of this year's award?

Jays reject Phils offer

OK, the dilemma in Toronto seems to be centered around wanting both Happ and Drabek in any Halladay deal, while the Phils obviously want the Jays to take Happ and Carrasco instead. Either way, it seems the Jays will be able to get a package that includes Jason Donal and one of Dominic Brown or Michael Taylor.

Here's a comparison of the 3 pitchers in play.

Carlos Carrasco: 22 yrs old in AAA, 20 GS, 114.2 IP, 112 Ks, 38 BB, 118 HA, 5.18 ERA;
Kyle Drabek: 21 yrs old split time in HiA and AA, 122 IP, 118 Ks, 19 BB, 104 HA, 2.80 ERA;
JA Happ: 27 yrs old in MLB, 12 GS, 7-1, 100 IP, 71 Ks, 33 BB, 85 HA, 2.97 ERA, 1.18 ERA.

Looking at these stats, one can see exactly why the Jays are insisting on getting Drabek in any deal. He is young, performs well, and has an awesome K/BB ratio. Getting Happ included allows the Jays to give Drabek time to develop while seeing immediate returns from the deal, so really the Phils insisting on Carrasco being included seems to be misguided if they really do want Doc.

Dominic Brown: 21 yrs old in HiA, 220 AB, 9 Hrs, 14 SB, 8 CS, .295 avg
Michael Taylor: 23 yrs olf in AAA, 354 AB, 17 Hrs, 20 SB, 4 CS, .328 avg

I can't for the life of me see why the Jays absolutely want Brown over Taylor. If they really want to get a deal done with the Phils, ask for Drabek and Happ, but allow for them to switch Brown for Taylor and ask for Donald along with him. Get the pitchers you want, one hell of a 5-tools OFer in Taylor, and a SS of the future in Donald. I can see this being the final deal before July 31st.

Angels package....

Apparently, as reported by Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi, the package supposedly demanded by the Jays from the Angels would include the following:

Joe Saunders - Brandon Wood - Erick Aybar - and one of Trevor Reckling, Peter Bourjos, or Sean O'Sullivan. The last part is probably set up to entice the Angels to pick the lesser evil in their view and to get them to bite. This package would definitely appeal to the Jays, who would get a great SP in Saunders, a long term 3B in Wood, a SS and infield option in Aybar, and another great piece to help their overall depth. But really, why would the Angels do this deal? They have Saunders under control for a long period and Doc is definitely better than him, but is he so much better that it deserves Wood - Aybar - and another for the upgrade? I guess we'll find out soon enough.

There are supposedly 5 teams in play now and the talks seem to be heating up. My guess is that once the pressure mounts high enough on the Phillies they'll have no choice but to include Brown, Happ, and Drabek in the deal. They've been trying to hold off, but that's what it's going to take if they want Doc. And really, when you compare the deal they're being asked to give up in comparison to the Angels, it makes the Phils a hell of a lot better than it would the Angels because it doesn't include an active roster player.

C Carlos Perez smacks first dinger in GCL

18 year old Venezuelan catcher Carlos Perez was signed in 2007 as an international FA and has been highly touted by BA. He is currently catching for the GCL Jays and is doing very well thus far. He has 21 hits over his first 69 ABs for a .309 avg, and 10 of those hits have been for extra bases (6 doubles, 3 triples, and his first dinger yesterday). More impressively, he has only struck out 9 times (13%) and has walked 11 times, indicating that he is very patient and selective at the plate, a very good trait for such a young player.

Perez did play for the DSL2 Jays last season, and ended up with a .309 avg over 196 ABs, but didn't hit any HRs and only 12 of his 60 hits were for extra bases. It is possible that the Jays will let him progress slowly and keep him in the GCL all season as a result. But between Arencibia, Jeroloman, and now Perez, the Jays shouldn't have too many shortcomings at the C position for quite a while.

RP Daniel Farquhar dealing in AA

Over his last 10 appearances, 22 year old reliever Daniel Farquhar has a minute .077 ERA, only 6 hits and 5 walks allowed over 11.2 innings pitched, and 14 strike outs. He also saved 7 games during the same appearances, and now has 15 saves to his credit between HiA and AA this season, with a .082 ERA over 43.2 IP with 57 Ks. With talks of Scott Downs being or Jason Frasor being moved before the deadline, Daniel could be well on his way to a trial period with the Jays by the end of the month.

Daniel was quite a find in the 2008 draft for the Jays since he was drafted 308th overall in the 10th round. Since the Jays are in fact looking to move some older players, Daniel should get a chance to at the very least move up to AAA this season.

1B Brian Dopirak doing well in AAA

Lyle Overbay could be traded by the July 31st deadline, and Brian Dopirak could be the benefactor. The 25 year old has had a tremendous season in AA with one ingredient that the Jays could really use: power. He had 19 dingers in his 328 ABs while in AA, and drove in 68 RBIs in the process. His OBP .374, slg .576, and OPS .951, were all very impressive. So, he has since been promoted to AAA when they let Mr.Harper go and although he hasn't hit a HR yet, he is doing well with a .333 average over 33 ABs.

Dopirak hit 29 HRs last season between HiA Dunedin and AA New Hampshire. He was originally drafted by the Cubs in 2002 (56th overall) and was their minor league player of the year in 2004. They let him go in 2008 when the Jays pounced on him and decided to give him a shot. He's already been the player of the week twice this season in AA and was an All-Star last season in HiA. If Lyle is moved, I'm sure Brian will get a very good opportunity to prove himself with the Jays.