Jays Minors - Top 4 Third Basemen

 The Jays have not had much strength at third base in the minors since they took Kelly Gruber in the 80s. For some reason, the club has scouted players the wrong way at the hot corner. I'm not sure who makes the suggestions for which 3rd basemen to draft in the organization - or whether that person was usually over ridden, but the Jays finally noticed this trend and did something about it in recent years. They spent some high picks and lots of International money on acquiring top-end third base prospects. So, has it worked? Well, here are the top 4.

1.Gustavo Pierre: will be 18 in Dec 2009
 Gustavo was one of the youngest GCL Blue Jays on the squad in 2009, but even at his young age he carries a lot of strength due to his size - 6'2" 185 lbs. He was one of the few big splashes the Jays have made in International signings and will hopefully prove himself a little more in 2010, but his 2009 season showed some promise nonetheless. He played 48 games in the GCL, has 18 extra base hits in 174 AB, stole 8 bases and maintained a low but okay average for his age of .259. Part of the problem with Pierre is his inability to hit left handed pitching, maintaining a lowly .195 average and only 2 extra base hits against them, compared to a .278 average against righties with 16 extra base hits. As with many young players, he needs to cut down on strike outs and to build his pitch recognition skills as proven by his 45 strike outs to only 3 walks, but this is something he will learn and be taught over time. He made 14 errors in 100 attempts while flipping from SS to 3B. Gustavo was taken as a SS, but his arm plays very well at third and his growth will make it unlikely that he can stick at SS. As he matures and progresses in the minors in 2010, Gustavo should improve and has the highest ceiling of all third basemen in the system. Expect to see him repeat the GCL and jump to Auburn or Lansing at some point in the season.

2. Balbino Fuenmayor: just turned 20 in November 2009

Balbino at 20 is the exact size that Gustavo is expected to be when he turns 20 - 6'3" and 235 lbs of strength and power. To put Pierre's stats above in perspective, Balbino had only 4 home runs over 2 full years in the GCL at the very same age that Pierre was in 2009 and will be in 2010 (17 and 18). So, if Pierre improves slightly in 2010, he will have outpaced the growth Balbino had at that age by a healthy margin. After struggling through 2 years in the GCL, with some growth in the second shown in average (.307) and extra base hits (19), he finally showed some true potential as a 19 year old at Lansing in 2009. While is average dipped to .263 and his OBP was unsatisfactory at .279, he showed some power with 32 extra base hits, 8 HRs, and 54 RBI in 435 AB. He fought for playing time at 1B and 3B much of the year with 1B Michael McDade and 3B Mark Sobolewski, but should get a full year under his belt at 3B in 2010. Interestingly, he made 12 errors at 3B and none at 1B, despite playing more time at 1B. However, intentions are to keep him at 3B and develop his defense. He may get a jump to Dunedin at some point, but he needs to work on his strike outs and OBP before he can be viewed as a potential regular.

3. Bryson Namba: will be 19 in January 2010

Bryson was drafted in the 12th round of the 2009 draft and didn't get many ABs in 2009, only 77. However, he proved that he can use his size (6'2" and 210 lbs) by hitting 4 HRs in that short span. He'll be splitting time between 1B and 3B with Gustavo Pierre unless one of the two makes the jump to Lansing in 2010. Bryson hails from Hawaii and played some C and most of the infield in high school, but he will be used as a 1B or 3B by the Jays. Obviously, making the switch from C to 3B isn't easy, and explains why Bryson made 9 errors in 38 attempts in 2009. But, with some practice and experience, his D should improve as he is agile enough to play the position and even has a little speed (for now). He should continue to grow a little and will add muscle to his frame, both of which bode well for his power numbers. He did walk 6 times in 77 AB in 2009, so he may have a little more patience at this point than either Balbino or Gustavo do. Bryson will be tested with a full year at 3B in 2010, and should remain in Lansing for the majority of the season.

4. Kevin Ahrens: will be 21 in April 2010
Selected 16th overall in the first round of the 2007 draft, he ties David Purcey as some of the most disappointing Jays minors in recent times. Since he's still young at only 21 years old in 2010, and playing at a high enough level for his age, I kept him on this list. But Kevin really needs to show the Jays he can hit, or he'll be passed very quickly by Balbino and Gustavo. In 377 AB he had a .215 average, only 23 extra base hits, 4 HR, a .282 OBP, and had 18 errors in 175 attempts at 3B. He's smaller than most Jays 3B prospects at 6'1" and 190 lbs, and may never develop the power expected at the position. When he was drafted in 2007, announcers and scouts were making comparisons of Kevin to Chipper Jones. It definitely doesn't look like that will ever come near fruition, but, Kevin could develop if he adds strength into a Lyle Overbay type 1B. That's about his ceiling in my humblest opinion. He'll most likely begin 2010 by repeating in HiA Dunedin until he can display the skills needed to make a jump to AA in 2011 or beyond.

Next up will be the top 12 outfielders.

Jays Minors - Top 4 Second Basemen

Now, this is where the Jays minors picture gets really murky. We have a combination of under performing players and just drafted players who did fairly well in a short period of time. First and foremost, nobody sticks out and screams top-prospect. All have decent defensive tools and can become average MLB starters if all falls into place for them. Whether one of these guys becomes a star or not is the real question, and the 2010 season will go a long way to answering that question as they move up the ladder, and as the Jays are forced to decide who gets which level of play. Regardless, this is one of the weakest areas of the Jays minors system, only behind the SS position. The following are the top 4!

1. Ryan Schimpf: will be 22 in 2010
Overtaking John Tolisano as the top 2B in the system is the Jays 2009 5th round draft pick, Ryan Schimpf. Ryan signed very early after the draft, with little fanfare, and played hard from the beginning. He spent most of the season at Aubrun and played extremely well against right handers, hitting .333 with all 3 of his HRs, and showed his youth against lefties, hitting .152 with no extra base hits in 33 ABs. However, it's the fact that he walked almost as often as he struck out (15/24) that stood out for Ryan and enabled him to get a total OBP of .381 in 2009 at such a young age. Depending on how he comes out of the gates in 2010, he could move up the ladder very quickly and surpass John at some point. He's a sturdy 5'9" and 185 lbs and plays better defence than John does. His 2009 stats are as follows:
133 AB, 39 hits, .293 average, 7 doubles, 2 triples, 3 HRs, 14 RBI, 5 SBs

2. John Tolisano: will be 22 in 2010
Out of all of the Jays disappointing 2007 draft picks, I like John to turn it around the most. The 2007 second rounder played with a lot of heart in 2009, even if the results didn't match the effort. Regardless of the level John played at since he was drafted, he has maintained a very low batting average, which is the most troubling aspect of his progression. Whether it's his youth for his level of play, or the fact he tries too hard to "hurt" the ball and drive it out, John has to learn to hit for average if he wants to become a regular in MLB. He did so badly near the end of the year that the Jays decided against sending him to the AFL and decided to rest him instead. He may repeat HiA at Dunedin, but will likely get the move up to AA New Hampshire at some point in 2010. His calling card to the bigs is his intriguing combination of power and speed which both play well at 2B. His 2009 stats were:
401 AB, 93 hits, .232 average, 19 doubles, 2 triples, 12 HRs, 58 RBI, 5 SB

3. Brad Emaus: will be 24 years old in 2010
Brad was one of my favorite breakout candidates in 2009. He had an awesome spring training with the Jays, and took off like a bat out of hell once he started play in AA. However, he slowed down big time as the season wore on and ended up with very mediocre stats. His versatility in the infield may mean that Brad becomes a utility player for the Jays in 2010 or 2011. But, he does have the power and skills to become a starter if he works on being more consistent. His 2009 stats were as follows:
505 AB, 128 hits, .253 average, 28 doubles, 2 triples, 10 HRs, 67 RBI, 10 SBs

4. Oliver Dominguez : will be 21 years old in 2010
Oliver struggled a bit after his promotion from the DSL to the GCL, but he was only 20 years on in 2009 and still has plenty of time to develop. The tools are all there. His most telling stat in 2009 was the fact that he stole 13 bases without being caught once, indicating both how fast and smart he is on the bases. He should put on a little more weight as he gets older and bulks up, but currently sits at 5'9" and 156 lbs, not exactly a welter weight. With the 3 guys on this list ahead of him, Oliver will get time to develop at each level, and I expect he'll get a promotion to Lansing for 2010.
In 142 AB, he had 32 hits, a .225 average, 6 doubles, 3 HRs, and 13 SBs

Sadly, our SS are next up!

Shaun Marcum starts in Dunedin!

The road to recovery took a big leap forward for RHP Shaun Marcum, who threw 3 innings in HiA Dunedin and lasted 3 innings, allowing 2 hits, no runs, no walks, while striking out 1. This is huge news for the Jays who may be looking to deal Roy Halladay if they get their asking price for him. With so many able SPs on the DL returning for 2010 - including Marcum - there's a strong chance that Jays management will force Roy to decide whether he'll sign an extension or whether he wants to be dealt. Marcum's start was very encouraging, but we'll have to see if he makes another start on schedule before getting too excited about it. Soreness usually shows up the next day, so time will tell if we can expect Marcum to return in early September or so.

I can already hear the Texas Rangers picking up the phone...."We'll begin our offer with Chris Davis, Neftali Feliz, and Neil Ramirez, and add......, so long as we get Lyle Overbay along with Roy." They Jays could leave Davis in AAA to work out his strikeout fetish and give poor Brian Dopirak a chance to prove himself in the bigs. Davis could even be used at 3B where the Jays have very little depth should Rolen get injured or also be dealt. Not only would this save the Jays a ton of money and make them much younger while they sell high on the best pitcher in franchise history (along with Tom Henke), but it would provide the Jays with a ton of talent for the long term. If the Jays dealt Roy and Lyle in a deal with Texas, they'd save 15.75m from Roy's 2010 contract and whatever an extension would cost, and 7m from Lyle's contract. These cuts are necessary when you consider that Wells has a contract jumping from 1.5m in 2009, to 12.5m in 2010, and 23m in 2011. Some of the money saved could also be used to sign big international prospect talents and other free agents once the season ends. Texas has Smoak in AAA waiting to grab 1st base, and has 5-7 very strong SP in the minors. If they feel they can make a playoff run this season, Roy's addition could cement their stake. They also have the money to sign him to an extension and can use Lyle's D at 1st base while using the oft injured Blalock as primarily a 3B/1B backup and DH.

Moises Sierra back into form

Dunedin's OF Moises Sierra returned from injury recently and is back to hitting the way we know he can. His line over the last 10 games is 37 ABs, 16 hits, for .432 AVG, with a HR, a 2B and a SB. He's now hitting .325 on the season and although his power has been minimal to what is expected, he should get a shot at AA soon enough.

Dunedin Blue Jays - Pitching Update

Player	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	WHIP
Andrew Liebel	1	7	4.16	12	12	0	0	67.0	68	35	31	5	18	56	1.28
Ryan Page	2	6	4.86	11	11	1	0	53.2	67	44	29	6	16	30	1.55
Kenny Rodriguez	3	2	2.11	8	7	0	0	38.1	27	15	9	4	14	31	1.07
Tim Collins	3	2	2.64	18	0	0	1	30.2	19	10	9	1	13	50	1.04
Trystan Magnuson	1	0	3.64	18	0	0	0	29.2	31	15	12	2	13	19	1.48
Vincent Bongiovanni	1	3	4.00	9	5	1	0	27.0	27	15	12	1	11	19	1.41
Robert Bell	0	0	2.88	21	0	0	0	25.0	20	9	8	3	5	38	1.00
Brandon Magee	2	2	4.26	4	3	0	0	19.0	20	12	9	1	7	10	1.42
Cody Crowell	3	0	6.11	13	0	0	0	17.2	26	12	12	2	7	16	1.87
Marcus Walden	2	1	8.64	4	4	0	0	16.2	30	20	16	1	10	8	2.40
Dumas Garcia	1	0	1.80	14	0	0	1	15.0	11	4	3	0	5	11	1.07
Chad Beck	0	0	4.35	9	0	0	0	10.1	12	9	5	1	6	14	1.74
Charles Huggins	1	1	10.80	2	2	0	0	10.0	17	12	12	3	4	9	2.10
Alan Farina	0	1	11.17	4	2	0	0	9.2	10	13	12	3	9	8	1.97

The Dunedin Jays sit last in the standings, but their relief pitching is not to blame. The starters have had a tough time setting them up the right way, with Andrew Liebel leading the way at 1-7 despite a 1.28 WHIP and decent 4.16 ERA. Page, Bongiovanni, and the recently promoted Huggins are also inconsistent, but all have had some decent starts sprinkled with the bad ones. The best pitcher on the squad, in my opinion, is Kenny Rodriguez, who has a 1.08 WHIP and 2.11 ERA, but the 24 year old from Cuba is already 24 and may need to be trialed at AA sometime soon to push his progress like they have done with Brandon Magee. The RP crew for Dunedin is excellent, led by Tim Collins, Trystan Magnuson, and Robert Bell, who are all very dependable and dominant. Alan Farina was expected to be a key RP as well after an impressive start in Lansing in 2008, but has been on the DL since the end of April.

Dunedin Blue Jays - Hitters Update

Player	POS	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Eric Thames	LF	28	106	19	36	6	2	1	24	13	19	1	0.340	0.418	0.462	0.880
Darin Mastroianni	CF	51	186	39	56	10	1	0	20	33	33	29	0.301	0.417	0.366	0.783
Jonathan Jaspe	C	32	111	12	33	4	0	3	16	6	17	0	0.297	0.331	0.414	0.745
Raul Barron	2B	31	93	10	27	7	0	1	7	9	23	5	0.290	0.359	0.398	0.757
Moises Sierra	RF	44	163	24	47	11	1	2	21	13	28	5	0.288	0.374	0.405	0.779
Manuel Rodriguez	1B	44	158	11	43	12	0	1	26	8	43	0	0.272	0.295	0.367	0.662
John Tolisano	2B	41	151	23	38	6	2	5	21	20	29	5	0.252	0.339	0.417	0.756
Justin Jackson	SS	42	141	26	34	6	1	0	10	23	53	10	0.241	0.347	0.298	0.645
Jesus Gonzalez	1B	40	148	17	35	9	0	5	22	7	39	4	0.236	0.288	0.399	0.686
C.J. Ebarb	C	13	42	4	9	3	0	0	6	6	6	0	0.214	0.313	0.286	0.598
Matthew Liuzza	C	10	33	8	7	0	0	3	5	3	11	0	0.212	0.297	0.485	0.782
Kevin Ahrens	3B	42	150	15	31	8	0	2	14	14	35	1	0.207	0.279	0.300	0.579
Adam Loewen	LF	36	116	17	23	8	1	0	9	16	45	0	0.198	0.304	0.284	0.588
Chris Emanuele	RF	22	77	12	15	4	1	4	12	7	15	2	0.195	0.271	0.429	0.699

Looking at this lineup, you can tell right away what issues will ail the Jays for a very long time: an absolute lack of power throughout the organization. I'm almost at the point of taking bets on the next time the Jays have a 35 HR hitter being in 2025 or beyond (if it wasn't for Travis Snider that is). The Dunedin crew do have speed in Mastroianni who also has an excellent OBP. JJ is also starting to get better, but the fact remains that John Tolisano is tied for the team lead in HRs with 5. Both Tolisano and Jackson also have 12 errors already to their credit, which doesn't scream "Promote me now!!!". Ahrens is depressing, very depressing actually. On the good side Jonathan Jaspe has shown good patience at the plate and could become a Jason Kendall type of catcher with a little more pop. Moises Sierra came out this season all guns-a-blazing but has slowed a little since then, and Eric Thames was the best hitter on the team until he got injured. Adam Loewen's conversion to becoming a hitter has been slow and it seems that it could be a pipe dream to ever see him make it past AA as a hitter.