Dawn of a New Jays Era

I'd like to start off today's post with a statement: Roy Halladay was brought up right. His parents did an outstanding job. Here's a guy who could of gone through this trading ordeal two or three times, but he decided instead to extend with the Jays because he thought "maybe we can win". They could not, so he politely asks for a trade, extends with that team at a reduced "discount" rate - something most top 5 pitchers would never dream of doing because their greed blinds them - and allows the deal to happen. In doing so, he allows the Jays the opportunity to quicken the process of rebuilding without him, since they get players close to MLB ready instead of draft picks, and it also gives him a chance to win sooner. Thank you Doc, and thanks to your parents for raising you the right way. Thanks for the 11 years of professional, dedicated, and outstanding work. You'll be missed by all Jays fans and players to be sure, and hopefully will be recognized some day with the retiring of your number. You have my vote.

 Now, I certainly hope all of the Jays young guns were taking notes during this entire ordeal, and I mean all of them. How he went about things, dealt with the media, prepared each day, his training regimen, I hope it all sticks in their minds so that they get a chance to become great as well. As of this moment, the rumored added pieces of Kyle Drabek, Michael Talor, and Travis d'Arnaud (ranked 2,3,4 as Phillies prospects this off season by BA) add depth to the Jays and should allow for one hell of a pitching staff in the not too distant future.

I have one question for you all: How in the world did Alex Anthopolous have the time, never mind the inclination, to go out and sign C Ramon Castro while all of this 3-way dealing was going on? Couldn't it have waited? It now looks like since he's been signed to a major league contract and Raul Chavez got a minors deal, that Raul will be headed to AAA in support of JP Arencibia. Nice move which provides depth at a very cheap rate and allows for the growth of a young player who could become great!

Here's our 2011 lineup without all of the other expected trades Alex is likely to make. It looks well balanced to me, although it lacks speed and a lead off hitter.

2B - Aaron Hill 
RF - Michael Taylor
LF - Travis Snider
DH - Adam Lind
C - JP Arencibia
CF - Vernon Wells
3B - Edwin Encarnacion
1B - Brian Dopirak
SS - Alex Gonzalez

When you consider the fact that all of the guys 1 through 8 can hit 20+ HRs per season, it looks pretty good! But....What I don't get, is that with the pieces available from Seattle, why take d'Arnaud instead of a guy like  SS Carlos Triunfel? Or even their 3B Alex Liddi who tore up HiA this past season (although in High Desert, which always boosts stats). We have nobody that is close to ready to take up those positions, although judging from how quickly and effectively Alex has operated, that should be addressed when necessary. What I like about adding Taylor is that he allows Snider to shift to LF, a much better spot for him. What I don't like, it leaves Wells in CF so long as we gulp up his contract. Michael Taylor will produce like a Mike Cameron in terms of power and speed (25/25) but will do so while hitting for average, which makes him a future star. I'd like to see him develop into a Torii Hunter or Jayson Werth caibre player, who do everything well defensively and offensively.

The 2011 Rotation:

1- Ricky Romero
2- Bret Cecil
3- Marc Rzcepczynski
4- Shaun Marcum / Zach Stewart if Shaun not healthy
5- Kyle Drabek

Others: Jesse Litsch, Scott Richmond, Dustin McGowan (may head to the pen), David Purcey, Brad Mills, Reidier Gonzalez, Zach Stewart, Luis Perez

I love the potential of that rotation. When you add the fact that by then Henderson Alvarez and Chad Jenkins should be knocking on the door, it makes me smile like a kid in a candy store!

So, what does that leave Alex with to fill our 3B and SS deficiencies? He has the extra starters from the list above, as well as pending FA relievers (after this season) of Jason Frasor, Scott Downs, Brian Tallet,  Jeremy Accardo, Shawn Camp, as well as Lyle Overbay. These names provide us with a ton to speculate about and the rest of the off-season to wonder who will be traded where, if traded at all. Alex may decide to keep Frasor and Camp, but the remainder, along with some starters, may be on the move very soon.

Alex also has the following picks to work with in 2010 draft: 11th, 33rd (for losing Scutaro), 38th (failure to sign James Paxton), 50th, 67th (will be official when Lackey signs, we get this pick instead of 29th from Boston), 69th (failure to sign Jake Eliopolous), 82nd, and 102nd (for failure to sign Jake Barrett). They'll get one more pick in there (30-40 range) when Rod Barajas signs elsewhere. That gives Alex a total of 5 top 50 picks, and 9 top 100 picks. Remember, there are 30 teams in MLB, so if things were split evenly, the Jays would get 3 picks in the top 90 instead of the 9 they'll have in 2010. That's a ton of talent to add to any team's minors system and one that Alex Athopolous is making sure he'll be ready for by spending a lot on scouting and development.

Alex's accomplishments in such a short period are outstanding and I tip my hat to him. Within 2 years he will be responsible for a very competitive and exciting team. The Toronto Blue Jays finally have direction and thankfully it comes from the top. It's the dawn of a new era, and one I'm very thankful to be able to witness.
Thank you Alex "The Great" Anthopolous.

Jays Draft 2009 Picks Progression (top 20)

Stephen C Jenkins RHP R / R 6'04" 235 1987-12-22 1 20
*Unsigned
James A Paxton LHP L / L 6'03" 210 1988-11-06 Comp A 37
*Unsigned
Jake T Eliopoulos LHP L / L 6'03" 185 1991-05-25 2 68
*Unsigned
Jake D Barrett RHP R / R 6'04" 230 1991-07-22 3 99
*Unsigned
Jacob S Marisnick CF R / R 6'04" 200 1991-03-30 3 104
*Unsigned
Ryan M Goins SS L / R 5'10" 180 1988-02-13 4 130
*Signed July 17th
Ryan M Schimpf 2B L / R 5'09" 181 1988-04-11 5 160
*Unsigned
Kristopher C Hobson RF L / L 6'02" 205 1990-08-22 6 190
*Unsigned
Egan Smith LHP L / L 6'05" 200 1989-03-16 7 220 2009-06-14
*Signed, playing for Auburn, 4.11 ERA, 15.1 IP, 18 Ks, 4 BBs
Brian C Slover RHP R / R 6'03" 230 1988-06-10 8 250
*Unsigned
Aaron C Loup LHP L / L 5'11" 180 1987-12-19 9 280 2009-06-29
*Signed, not yet assigned to a particular team
Yan Gomes C R / R 6'02" 215 1987-07-19 10 310 2009-06-19
*Signed, playing for Auburn: .226 avg, 5 doubles, 1 HR, 7 RBI, 1 CS
Sean P Ochinko C R / R 5'11" 205 1987-10-21 11 340 2009-07-08
*Signed, playing for Auburn: .286 avg
Bryson J Namba 3B R / R 6'02" 210 1991-01-31 12 370 2009-06-14
*Signed, playing for GLC Jays: .077 avg
Matthew A Morgal RHP R / R 6'05" 210 1986-09-18 13 400 2009-06-14
*Signed, playing for Auburn: 3 IP, 4 ER, 3 BB, 3 Ks
Lance A Durham 1B L / R 5'10" 220 1988-02-20 14 430 2009-06-14
*Signed, playing for Auburn, .237 avg, 1 double, 1 triple, 2 home runs, 2 SBs
Andrew S Hutchison RHP L / R 6'02" 165 1990-08-22 15 460
*Unsigned
David M Sever RHP R / R 6'04" 195 1986-09-17 16 490 2009-06-14
*Signed, playing for Auburn, 2.84 ERA, 19 IP, 21 Ks, 3 BBs.
Steven Turnbull RHP R / R 6'03" 220 1986-11-25 17 520
*Signed, playing for Auburn, 3.29 ERA, 13.2 IP, 10 Ks, 4 BBs
Robert M Webb RHP R / R 6'03" 210 1989-08-18 18 550
*Unsigned
Dennis R Tepera RHP R / R 6'01" 180 1987-11-03 19 580 2009-06-29
*Signed, pitching as a reliever for GCL Jays, 2.2 IP, 3 BB, 4 Ks, 0 ER
Kevin Nolan SS R / R 6'02" 200 1987-12-13 20 610 2009-06-14
*Signed, playing for Auburn, .133 avg, 1 double, 2 RBI, 1 SB

Draft Info

Missouri RHP Kyle Gibson, who was a top-ten candidate, has a stress fracture in his throwing arm and will likely fall in the draft as a result of the injury. Something similar happened to Tanner Scheppers last year and he fell to 43rd overall. So this situation begs the question: if Gibson falls to the Jays at #20, should they take him? I say that it must depend on the medical information they can gather. I have no idea how often an injury like this can reoccur or what effect it has on the pitcher's state of mind, but if the Jays can get a top 10 talent at #20, they are obligated to at least consider taking him.

I keep looking through the many draft scenarios available out there and find myself divided on whether the Jays will take a bat or an arm with their #20 pick. They do have a sandwich pick, the 37th overall, where they could conceivably get one hell of an arm. Since this draft is so shallow in top-quality bats, I would expect that the Jays may decide to sign one of the few bats available with the #20, followed by an arm at #37....unless Gibson ends up being that #20 pick.

I personally predict that if SS Grant Green or SS Jiovanni Mier are available the Jays will take them first.Then, if LHP Rex Brothers or LHP Mike Minor are available, the Jays will select them in order. Other prime candidates are OF Tim Wheeler or Reymond Fuentes. I'd be surprised if it was someone else, but it would probably end up being an arm.

Draft Preview

Here is the most recent draft order as updated by Baseball America in mid-April.

1) Nationals 2) Mariners 3) Padres 4) Pirates 5) Orioles 6) Giants 7) Braves 8) Reds 9) Tigers 10) Nationals (compensation for failure to sign 2008 first round selection, Aaron Crow) 11) Rockies 12) Royals 13) Athletics 14) Rangers 15) Indians 16) Diamondbacks 17) Diamondbacks (compensation from Dodgers for Orlando Hudson) 18) Marlins 19) Cardinals 20) Blue Jays 21) Astros 22) Twins 23) White Sox 24) Angels (compensation from Mets for Francisco Rodriguez) 25) Angels (compensation from Yankees for Mark Teixeira) 26) Brewers 27) Mariners (compensation from Phillies for Raul Ibanez) 28) Red Sox 29) Yankees (compensation for failure to sign 2008 first round selection, Gerrit Cole) 30) Rays 31) Cubs 32) Rockies (compensation from Angels for Brian Fuentes)

Supplemental First-Round Picks
33. Mariners (compensation for loss of Raul Ibanez)
34. Rockies (compensation for loss of Brian Fuentes)
35. Diamondbacks (compensation for loss of Orlando Hudson)
36. Dodgers (compensation for loss of Derek Lowe)
37. Blue Jays (compensation for loss of AJ Burnett)
38. White Sox (compensation for loss of Orlando Cabrera)
39. Brewers (compensation for loss of CC Sabathia)
40. Angels (compensation for loss of Mark Teixeira)
41. Diamondbacks (compensation for loss of Juan Cruz)
42. Angels (compensation for loss of Francisco Rodriguez)
43. Reds (compensation for loss of Jeremy Affeldt)
44. Rangers (compensation for loss of Milton Bradley)
45. Diamondbacks (compensation for loss of Brandon Lyon)
46. Twins (compensation for loss of Dennys Reyes)
47. Brewers (compensation for loss of Brian Shouse)
48. Angels (compensation for loss of Jon Garland)
49. Pirates (for failure to sign 2008 second-rounder Tanner Scheppers)

Second-Round Changes
56. Dodgers (compensation from Braves for Derek Lowe)
60. Diamondbacks (compensation from Royals for Juan Cruz)
61. White Sox (compensation from Athletics for Orlando Cabrera)
73. Brewers (compensation from Yankees for CC Sabathia)
76. Yankees (for failure to sign 2008 second-rounder Scott Bittle)

Third-Round Changes
104. Blue Jays (compensation from Yankees for AJ Burnett)

Analysis:

The Jays do get compensation for losing AJ Burnett, which is great for an organization that needs to keep things cheap if possible. They end up with 5 picks in the first 3 rounds, which is bad. Draft predictions are hard to make, but I'll do my best to deduce who they won't get a chance to take, and therefore amplify who they very well may take.

The Top 10: There is an obvious #1 this year with Stephen Strasburg leading the way as the phenom of the draft, and the other top 10 contenders are predictable enough at this point. They are:

1- Stephen Strasburg, SP WAS

2- Grant Green, SS SEA (although they may opt for Ackley due to Triunfel's presence in the minors)

3- Dustin Ackley, 1B/OF SD (whether it's Green or Ackley, SD will draft a position player)

4- Tyler Matzek, SP PIT (the top HS SP in the draft)

5- Matt Purke, SP BAL

6- Donovan Tate, OF SF (could be their best OFer in a long, long time)

7- Zach Wheeler, SP ATL (ATL scouts love this kid)

8- Alex White, SP CIN (a slow start to the season has brought about questions about his ceiling)

9- Aaron Crow, SP DET (other teams will balk at his signing price, Detroit will pay whatever it takes)

10- Rich Poythress, 1B WAS (with WAS getting Strasburg with the #1, they'll want some pop in their lineup to make sure they can score some runs. Rich has more pop than any other College player in the draft)

With these guys off-the-board, the Jays are looking at a heard of SP or OF prospects leading the way for the remainder of the first round. Of these, and since the Jays have had slow progression from their HS drafted prospects, they are most likely aiming for one of these players with their first pick:

Rex Brothers, LHP - His stock has gone up extensively this season
Mike Leake, RHP
Mike Minor, LHP
Jacob Turner, RHP
Jared Mitchell, OF (has 5 tool talent)
Tim Wheeler, OF (also has 5 tool talent)
Kendall Volz, RHP

My opinion is that this draft is very heavy in SP talent, and since the Jays pick again at 37, they will most likely lean towards one of Mitchell or Wheeler if they are available. There is a serious lack of speed on the Jays throughout their system, and the opportunity to grab a 5-tool player will not pass them by easily. Having said that, I fully expect them to grab the best talent available regardless of position, but there will clearly be lots of SP talent left to select from with the 37th pick and in the second round. I guess we'll find out soon as draft day approaches!