Rotation Update from Alex "The Great" and Rule 5 News

Bluebird Banter sighted a report by Jordan Bastien about some Jays pitching updates. Having received word from GM Alex "The Great - so far" Anthopolous of the following news:
"Shawn Marcum is healthy, ready to go and might be cleared to take a full workload next season.
Jesse Litsch will be out till July.
They are unsure about Dustin McGowan, he was shut down in October.
The Jays are looking to pick someone up in the Rule 5 Draft. They have 11th pick. The 40-man roster is full so someone would have to be dropped if they were to pick someone up." 

Ok. So my thought process now jumps back to trading Roy, and who we drop if a Rule 5 pick is made.Our rotation, without Doc and ignoring any possible returns, now stands as follows:

1- Shaun Marcum   2- Ricky Romero  3- Bret Cecil
4- Marc Rzepczynski   5- Scott Richmond

Next up: Robert Ray, Zach Stewart, David Purcey, and Reidier Gonzalez.
Mid-Season Addition: Possible return of Jesse Litsch in July 2010
Subtraction: Dustin McGowan is not to be expected to contribute, as of today, in 2010. Although, many fans are starting to think up scenarios for how to best use Dustin most effectively in the future. Some believe he has the stuff and demeanor to become a feared closer. Not a bad idea. (Mark Prior should try it as well, btw)


I don't know about you guys, but it doesn't really seem all that bad to me. Sure, we have no ace, but we do get to sit and watch 4 very strong pitchers in our top 4, as well as the possible addition of Zach Stewart during the season which I find very intriguing. I'm sure we'll be adding at least 1 SP in a Doc deal, so our 2010 rotation doesn't look too bad overall, even if it lacks a true ace.


As for the rule 5 pick, who do we drop? 


1- I doubt Alex would drop any of his very recent acquisitions (Hoffpauir and McCoy);
2- Reidier Gonzalez and Brian Dopirak were protected for a reason, so they stay;
3- Joe Inglett is unlikely to be dropped, and more likely to be sent to AAA....again;
Answer - That leaves us with Sean Henn as the only obvious candidate to be dropped if the Jays pick up a player during the rule 5 draft.

For those who may not pay much attention to the Rule 5, here's some of the players who have been chosen through the Rule 5 draft:

Roberto Clemente, Johan Santana, George Bell, Mike Morgan, Bip Roberts, Bobby Bonilla, Darrell Evans, Kelly Gruber, Josh Hamilton, Dave Hollins, Scott Podsednik,  Joakim Soria, Dan Uggla, Shane Victorino (Twice!!), Everth Cabrera, Miguel Batista, Jay Gibbons, ect...

Hard to believe some of those names. I think it's worth watching and paying a little attention to the Rule 5, right?

Winter League Update - Jays Hitters Edition

With the chill of the FA market frenzy, most likely until the winter meetings, I decided to take a peak at what our winter blue birds are doing around the equator. Since some of these players may get a chance to prove themselves with the Jays in 2010, these performances can go a long way to ensuring they actually get a good long look.

1. Brian Dopirak 1B
Mr. Dopirak is continuing what has been an amazing 2009, albeit at a less impressive pace. He is playing for Navegantes del Magallanes in Venezuela, and has the following line thus far:
137 AB, 37 hits, .270 average, 7 doubles, 7 HRs, 32 RBI, 19 BB, and 40 SO

joining Brian on the same team just recently is the highly touted Balbino!!

2. Balbino Fuenmayor 3B
"Little" Balbino got his start in Venezuela this week and has only played in 4 games thus far, his line is:
14 AB, 5 hits, .357 average, 2 doubles, 1 HR, 2 BB and 8 SO

3. Raul Chavez C
The only catcher the Jays have under contract has the following line:
76 AB, 17 hits, .224 average, 4 doubles, 1 HR, 9 RBI, 4 BB, 10 SO

4. Mike McCoy 2B/SS
The newly acquired infielder is in Mexico, playing for Tomateros de Culiacan and has the following line:
129 AB, 43 hits, .333 average, 6 doubles, 1 triple, 2 HRs, 10 RBI, 26 BB and 20 SO

5. Moises Sierra OF
Playing in the Dominican Republic, for Gigantes del Cibao, Moises has the following line:
51 AB, 11 hits, .216 average, 1 double, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 2 BB, 9 SO

6. David Cooper 1B
David played in the AFL for the Mesa Solar Sox, and his season's line there was:
78 AB, 18 hits, .231 average, 5 doubles, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 6 BB, 18 SO

7. Brad Emaus 2B
Brad also played in the AFL this fall, with a line of:
60 AB, 19 hits, .317 average, 3 doubles, 1 HR, 10 RBI, 7 BB, 3 SO

8. Darin Mastroianni OF
Played for the Phoenix Desert Dogs of the AFL, and had the following line:
44 AB, 11 hits, .250 average, 1 double, 0 HR, 4 RBI, 2 SB, 8 BB, 5 SO

9. Adam Loewen OF
Who knows why, but some still think he can hit, he had the following line in the AFL:
70 AB, 14 hits, .200 average, 1 double, 2 HRs, 9 RBI, 9 BB, 32 SO (almost struck out 50% of time!!!)

10. Johermyn Chavez OF
Didn't play much in a short stint in Venezuela's winter league, but had the following line:
23 AB, 5 hits, .217 average, 2 doubles, 3 RBI, 2 BB, 6 SO

When you look at all of these stats, you have to be seriously underwhelmed and have a clear understanding of why most people don't pay any attention to them. Out of all of the Jays hitters making the trip to winter leagues, only Brian Dopirak, Mike McCoy, and Brad Emaus made or continued their progress and performed well. Otherwise, if you're in Jays management you have to be scratching your head and wondering if it was worthwhile for the others to go. Balbino could still have a good performance in Venezuela and learn much from it. I wonder if Dopirak's performance helped him, or if it will tire him out instead. I can understand his wanting to keep the hot streak alive without sitting home waiting for spring training to come around, but with only a short time between the end of the season and spring training workouts, he could have used some time to rest. Mike McCoy could turn out to be a key role player for the Jays in 2010 and he looks like he can contribute offensively.

Like I said, not much really stands out form the hitting point of view, and some may actually sealed their next assignments based in poor performances (Cooper, Loewen). I feel that Cooper should be sent to HiA Dunedin in order to rebuild his confidence and to push him to get better, and Loewen should be released. Michael McDade can make the jump to AA from LoA since he deserves to be there more than Cooper does.

Jays Minors - Top 4 First Basemen

If we rewind the clock to 2007, before Brian Dopirak was obtained, the Jays minor league depth at 1B was non-existant. There was absolutely no light at the end of the dark tunnel to cover 1B. JP must of been thanking his lucky stars that Lyle Overbay never got injured, because there was nobody behind him to take the spot with any gusto.

Fast-forward to today and it's a completely different picture. Although half of the top four have yet to "prove" themselves in the minors, their ceilings are extremely high and the Jays may actually have an issue at some point when young players start knocking on MLB's door.

The top spot on this list is automatic, but the others are ranked in terms of ceilings.

1. Brian Dopirak : will be 27 in 2010

Brian deserved the same shot Randy Ruiz got last season based on his performance in AA and AAA. The Jays were very lucky that the Cubs were silly enough to release him outright in 2008, even though he was named their minor league player of the year just 4 years earlier. How much would they like to have him now that Derek Lee is getting a bit too expensive for their budget? Between AA and AAA, Brian his 27 HR in 546 AB all the while hitting .315. He is also playing winter ball this year in Venezuela and has 7 HRs in only 137 AB. His glove works very well at 1B and he is a lot more agile than his big body would indicate. He should get a fair shot at 1B if Overbay is dealt. If not, and this would be unfortunate, he will need to wait for a break and continue to waste time in the minors.

2. Santiago Nesi : will be 24 in 2010

Although the Jays signed Santiago while he was listed as a Catcher, there is little talk of keeping him at the position now that the Jays paid him a $750,000 bonus. Not only do they have better options at the position, but his arm is well below average and his defence isn't strong enough to keep him there. However, his bat would definitely play well at 1B, and he is a big guy at 6'2" 220 lbs. He is the best power hitting threat the Jays have in the system after JP Arencibia, and his stroke is more compact than JP's, meaning that he should be able to make more consistent contact without subtracting too much power. I'm very curious to see where the Jays start him in 2010 and can't wait to read about the results.

3. David Cooper : will be 23 in 2010

David was drafted 17th overall in the 2008 draft, and like many of the 2007-2008 draft picks he has struggled to get going ever since. Maybe it's the pressure, but between him, Justin Jackson, Kevin Ahrens, and others, there are many Jays prospects that are under performing thus far since being drafted in a high position. David spent 2009 in AA New Hampshire and hit 10 HR in 473 ABs while keeping a .253 average. The Jays are still hoping his learning curb starts to take off, so they sent him to the AFL this year, and the results were very similar. He hit 1 HR over 78 ABs and kept a lowly .231 average. He doesn't run well at all, doesn't hit as many extra base hits as other 1B in the system, and isn't very big at 6'0" and 200 lbs. I'm still holding onto his high ceiling for one more year, but if he doesn't add muscle and start driving the ball with authority in 2010, I'll be giving up on this once high on our list prospect.

4. Michael McDade : will be 21 in 2010

Michael is a sixth rounder from the 2007 draft and hails from Las Vegas. He is one big boy at 6'1" and 260 lbs, and drives the ball accordingly. He had 16 HRs in 406 ABs in his first full season at LoA Lansing, and more importantly had 46 extra base hits overall. He drives the ball with authority and swings a little too freely, but that should be addressed as he matures and gains more experience - instruction. He still has issues hitting LHP (.234) in comparison to RHP (.293), but did learn to hit it a bit more consistently in the second half of the season. He hit .277 on the season and really came on after the all-star break with a .296 average to go along with 8 of his 16 HRs. So he was able to maintain his power while hiking his average quite a bit. Out of all the Jays prospects, he ranks in my top 3 to watch in 2010 in terms of prospects that can make some serious breakthroughs and jump up the rankings. It all depends on how he does in HiA and whether he learns to hit LHP.

As I've said, the Jays finally have some real potential at 1B, something they haven't had since Carlos Delgado strolled through the system. I can't wait to see how they perform in 2010 and look forward to their progression through the minors, or in MLB in Dopirak's case.

Next up will be 2B.

1B Brian Dopirak doing well in AAA

Lyle Overbay could be traded by the July 31st deadline, and Brian Dopirak could be the benefactor. The 25 year old has had a tremendous season in AA with one ingredient that the Jays could really use: power. He had 19 dingers in his 328 ABs while in AA, and drove in 68 RBIs in the process. His OBP .374, slg .576, and OPS .951, were all very impressive. So, he has since been promoted to AAA when they let Mr.Harper go and although he hasn't hit a HR yet, he is doing well with a .333 average over 33 ABs.

Dopirak hit 29 HRs last season between HiA Dunedin and AA New Hampshire. He was originally drafted by the Cubs in 2002 (56th overall) and was their minor league player of the year in 2004. They let him go in 2008 when the Jays pounced on him and decided to give him a shot. He's already been the player of the week twice this season in AA and was an All-Star last season in HiA. If Lyle is moved, I'm sure Brian will get a very good opportunity to prove himself with the Jays.