Most likely Doc scenarios

Peter Gammons recently reported that there's about a 20% chance that Doc will be moved before the deadline. I'm not sure where he got that number from, and don't really care since he's wrong the majority of the time, but let's say he's right and that Doc isn't moved, what happens then?

Well, you end up with a bottleneck of other pitchers that return from injury and need to prove themselves before they have any trade value to go along with a ton of rookies that have proved they can pitch. Here's the "2010 Wonder List" if Doc were to stay.

1- Roy Halladay (presumably sticks around with a re-signing because he loves TO)
2- Ricky Romero
3- Shaun Marcum
4- Scott Richmond
5- Casey Janssen
6- Brian Tallet
7- Dustin McGowan
8- Jesse Litsch
9- Robert Ray
10- David Purcey
11- Bret Cecil
12- Marc Rzepczynski

Quite the bottleneck to say the least!! Now, we all know that the Jays are not trading the last 2 because they are very young, cheap, and extremely talented. We also know that Tallet can slide back into the RP role if needed, and that both Litsch and McGowan may have serious complications during the season. So in reality, it leaves an 8 man rotation that is proven, tried and true. So my question is, who do you deal in today's market? Do you try to deal Purcey, Janssen, or even Tallet? From those only Janssen and Tallet may have real value due to their pen experience, but what would you get in return? 1 or 2 semi-talented prospects?

In my opinion, the reality is that the Jays have plenty of talent to survive without Doc being in their rotation, but they would definitely miss his veteran presence and his willingness to lead the staff. If he goes, who's next in line to lead? Romero? Richmond? Not quite the veteran presence we had in mind since neither one has 2 full years of MLB experience. But, we all know JP idolizes Billy Beane and may be looking at Oakland's most recent makeover and wondering if he can replicate that in Toronto with a whole bunch of young guns that should all become #1 or #2 quality guys in the short term.

With Torii Hunter and Vlad Guerrero going on the DL and a championship in question with the rise of Texas, I'm looking more and more at the Angels getting Doc and sending some quality stuff to Toronto.

My prediciton is one of the 2 LA teams will make a play for Roy. They have the $$$, they have the talent, and both want to win it all this season.

LAA scenario:

3B Brandon Wood
OF Peter Bourjos
SP Jordan Walden
SP Manuarys Correa
1-2 more prospect

for Roy Hallday. New LAA Rotation:

Roy Halladay
John Lackey
Jered Weaver
Joe Saunders
Ervin Santana
*Matt Palmer and co as injury replacement/long relief

This move allows the Jays to go ahead and move Rolen to ST-Louis without asking for Wallace in return, possibly going after SS Pete Kozma and 1 other prospect instead. A Hill-Lind-Snider-Wood combo in the lineup for Toronto (long term) would become the heart of a great lineup and the other prospects are all impact guys, particularly Walden who could develop to be another #2 guy for the Jays very quickly. Bourjos is a prototypical leadoff guy and Correa has a great arm as well for a 19 year old. The only thing I'm not entirely sure of is whether the Jays and Angels will attempt to add a Vernon Wells for Gary Matthews aspect to the deal. This would save the Jays a ton of money, but would still be a lot of money wasted on Matthews who doesn't deserve his contract either. We will see, but if Doc is moved, I almost guarantee it will be one of the AL West teams who gets him for 4 reasons: 1) they are in a very tight and competitive division this year 2) Roy knows all AL hitters very well and would most likely waive his no trade more easily if it were for LAA or TEX 3) Both have the minors resources available to deal and 4) both are very hungry to win this year. Since I've heard that Texas has payroll issues due to ownership money being tight, I am almost ready to wager a lot of money that the LA Angels will in fact get their hands on possibly the best pitcher in all of MLB this season......if he is dealt. Big if.