The Roy Halladay Saga

MLBTR mentioned the latest Roy Halladay news yesterday and placed the Dodgers at the forefront of the teams in the running for his outstanding services. However, the rumors keep emphasizing Chad Billingsley being part of the return to Toronto. Under JP, I would agree, under Alex I would say that he has a better grip on why this cannot be. Let me explain.

If the Dodgers are going to be major contenders without the need to rely on Vicente Padilla in a crucial playoff game, they need MORE pitching, not better pitching. They would like their rotation to read: Roy Halladay, Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda and one FA SP signed this off-season or James McDonald. The key is, they want to do this while keeping their main roster intact. No Ethier or Kemp involved, even Russel Martin may be off limits in their view in order to contend 100% in 2010....So, how, you ask can this get done? Well, here's a couple of scenarios.

First Scenario: The Jays are also looking to move Lyle Overbay, who is an excellent defender and can also hit very well at times, so it isn't a stretch to include James Loney as a return for the Jays. A package that includes James Loney, James McDonald, Ivan DeJesus, and Scott Elbert, in return for Doc and Overbay could work in this case. It fills the need for the Jays to have an MLB ready SP in return (McDonald), a SS of the future (Dejesus), a power hitting 1B (Loney) and some pen help (Elbert). In return, the Dodgers get better defensively and also get an ace/mentor in Halladay. The major hurdle here would be the Dodgers getting an extension done with Doc. (3-4 years total).

Second Scenario:
If the Dodgers are too shy to deal James Loney and want nothing to do with Lyle Overbay, they could deal a package full of top-end prospects. The key to this deal would become a combination of RHP Ethan Martin and 1B/OF Andrew Lambo. These two players who be added to SS Ivan Dejesus, RP Scott Elbert, and INF Blake Dewitt. Not only does this not harm the current Dodgers lineup and provide them with an ace in Doc, it also allows them to keep James McDonald who could also provide them with some SP depth as a possible #5 or injury replacement. The extension is still a hurdle in this case.

Unlike JP who was delusional about the team he was leading and their chances of winning, Alex recognizes that he has to build strength in numbers. That is, lots of prospects and lots of young and cheap players, sprinkled with some of the older talent already on the team that is still affordable (Lind/Hill).

I still firmly believe the Jays want to move Roy to the NL in order to avoid making their rivals better, and using their rivals as leverage makes perfect sense. However, they now need to play the Phillies and Dodgers off one-another. They faced each other in the 2009 NLCS and both intend on repeating in 2010, so they are primed to do whatever it takes to get better. The Phillies still have the best options, but are not as desperate to win as the Dodgers are because they already have a World Series win under their belts. It makes sense to look for the Dodgers to land Doc, and the packages above make the Jays much better overall. Guess it's a wait and see now!

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