The Jays are scouting Buchholz...twice!

Ok, normally you hear trade rumors and decide on your own whether or not the teams involved are actually interested based on how the GM replies to questions or base your opinion on what makes general sense. However, with all of the Jays/Doc rumors circulating the pre-All-Star break MLB ears one stands out above the rest for a couple of reasons. The rumor in question involves Doc going to the Red Sox in return for a package centered around Clay Buchholz. A recent MLBTR article states that Jays scouts were sent to watch Clay pitch in his latest AAA start (not a stellar one), which is of no surprise since they can argue that they are just doing their homework. But when the Red Sox announce that they will deliberately called up Clay to pitch against the Jays on Friday of next week, bells start to go off. And here is the kicker: the Red Sox have balked all year at Colorado's asking price for Atkins, so how much would they love to get their mitts on Scott Rolen at a reduced price?

A Doc and Rolen deal to the Red Sox would bring back what exactly to the Jays? It would have to be a ton, at least enough to hurt the Red Sox for many, many years after they win a championship or two with Doc.

Let's start with the following:
1- Clay Buchholz SP
2- Lars Anderson 1B (Sox already have Youk to play 1st and Rizzo down the line)
3- Michael Bowden SP

These are automatics if a deal were to get done between TOR and BOS. Lars would be the heir to Overbay, and Clay and Michael help ease the loss of Roy. But it would not stop there, obviously. Other add in possibilities:

4- Stolmy Pimentel SP
5- Michael Almanzar 3B (automatic if Rolen is included)
6- Ryan Kalish OF

This leaves Boston with a top 5 prospect list of:
1- Josh Reddick, 2- Daniel Bard, 3- Junichi Tazawa, 4- Nick Hagadone, 5- Reymond Fuentes
Not only is what they have left after losing all of those prospects not bad, it still includes 4 guys who can have an impact this year or next. Their rotation would become:
1- Roy Halladay, 2- Josh Beckett, 3- Jon Lester, 4- John Smoltz, 5- Tim Wakefield, 6- Daisuke Matsuzaka....yes, that's right, they'd still have 6 starters AND they'd have to deal Brad Penny to get yet another piece or 1-2 prospects.

Can you imagine a playoff rotation of Roy-Josh-Jon-John? Wow, good luck beating that one. When you add the fact that their pen is #1 in the league, they would be pretty unstoppable.

So, where would this leave the Jays? Well, their rotation would become one of the most promising, cheap, and talented in the league and comparable to Oakland in need for seasoning. New rotation:

1- Ricky Romero
2- Bret Cecil
3- Clay Buchholz
4- Marc Rzepczynski
5- Brian Tallet/ Shaun Marcum/ Scott Richmond/ David Purcey/ Jesse Litsch/ Dustin McGowan/ Michael Bowden

Stolmy Pimentel would provide depth for the future, while Almanzar and Anderson would become the corners of the future for the Jays. There are chances the Jays would have to include 1 or 2 low end prospects in this deal, but the future of the Jays would be set and they would be explosive within 3 years.

One of the keys to this deal happening include that the Yankees would be left out in the cold and would most likely not get a chance to sign Roy to a deal once he becomes a FA, because Boston would extend him before he got there. Also, Texas is out of money and therefore can't afford to deal for Roy, while St-Louis and others have listed way too many "untouchables" in their positions. How can there be any untouchables when you are talking about acquiring arguably the best pitcher in all of MLB? I can actually see this deal getting done. The question now remains, does the fact that the Jays want to see Clay pitch again mean Roy won't get traded over the All-Star break?


  1. matt,

    after todays start with the performance by zep, a quality start, do you think that he will get another opportunity to start with the big club? Will Scott R. be ready after the all-star break? I thought the break in the game disrupted zep's performance.

  2. The break definitely threw off Rzep's tempo and as we saw thereafter, he does need work on pitching with runners on base. These are the little things that make up the difference between seasoned vets and rookies. I'm guessing that the Jays could go the "Purcey" route and claim he's rehabbing, when really they are happy with their current options. Even if he is sent down (more likely), it will not be long before he's up again if Cecil struggles or Tallet tires. Richmond was only allowed to start pitching July 11th, so I'm guessing Marc will get 1 more start at the least to prove himself, then may get sent back down to AAA for seasoning.